Solar, to be dominant source of power within 12 years

Solar, to be dominant source of power within 12 years

According to famous futurist Ray Kurzweil the laws of exponential growth also apply to the solar industry, which so far has proven to be the case if you look at the growth of solar energy generation in the past 10-15 years. If his statement turns out to be true, then we can expect the solar industry to be the dominant supplier of energy by 2028 – or actually provider of all energy if you calculate it through, but that would be a bit too optimistic/unrealistic to expect!


Source: Perez&Perez, 2009a

What he also says – and that is something I find over and over again – is that people keep on underestimating not only the solar industry but other industries as well. The reason for that is that the human mind is not built for recognising exponential growth. In our everyday life everything is usually linear so we are not used to such patterns and have difficulties grasping them or we simply don’t see them.

The tricky thing about exponential growth is that in the beginning it slowly creeps up on you without you noticing and suddenly it reaches a threshold where everyone takes notice and thinks it came out of nowhere. In actuality you could have seen it coming if you had looked at the data, which most people don’t do. Also, the media doesn’t help. I think I have never seen a chart on TV news about the exponential growth of anything….and why is that? The answer is, it’s not exciting and doesn’t make a catchy headline. In my opinion, this is something that urgently needs to change because it distorts reality or actually leaves out an essential part of what is true…like reading the menu in a restaurant, but not getting to eat anything from it…sort ofūüėÖ!

Source: Please visit my favourite green tech blog Cleantechnica for the whole story and a link to Ray Kurzweil’s presentation

Featured image courtesy of “winterseitler” via Pixabay

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